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Every year the Academy Awards bring together the competing forces of cinema: artistic ambition, historical storytelling, industry politics, and awards-season momentum. The 98th Academy Awards promise to be one of the most competitive races in recent memory, with several films dominating critics awards, guild prizes, and Academy nominations.

This year’s race is largely defined by a clash between two cinematic heavyweights: Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another and Ryan Coogler’s Sinners. One represents the traditional prestige drama beloved by Academy voters; the other blends genre filmmaking with historical and cultural themes in a bold cinematic package.

But Oscars history shows that nominations rarely translate directly into wins. Instead, a complex mixture of industry support, narrative momentum, and Academy voting patterns determines the final outcome.

So who will win the 2026 Oscars?

Here are MoviesToHistory’s official predictions for the 98th Oscars.

🏆 Best Picture

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Predicted Winner: One Battle After Another

The Best Picture race often reveals the Academy’s broader cultural mood. In recent years voters have gravitated toward ambitious filmmaking that blends political themes, historical perspective, and strong directorial vision.

One Battle After Another fits that profile perfectly.

Directed by Paul Thomas Anderson, the film has earned widespread praise for its narrative scope and ensemble performances. It also has the kind of cross-branch support that historically drives Best Picture victories: nominations in directing, acting, screenplay, editing, and technical categories.

While Sinners leads the nominations tally, Oscar history suggests that the film with the most nominations does not always win Best Picture. In fact, Academy voters frequently split awards between a technical powerhouse and a prestige drama.

That pattern makes One Battle After Another the most likely Best Picture winner.

Top challengers

🎬 Best Director

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Predicted Winner: Paul Thomas Anderson — One Battle After Another

Few filmmakers working today have the reputation of Paul Thomas Anderson. Despite multiple nominations over his career, Anderson has never won the Academy Award for Best Director.

The narrative surrounding this race is therefore powerful: a respected auteur finally receiving overdue recognition.

Historically, the Academy’s directing branch strongly favors distinctive filmmaking voices, particularly those responsible for ambitious cinematic storytelling. Anderson’s direction of One Battle After Another — with its intricate narrative structure and sweeping visual design — positions him as the clear frontrunner.

Primary challenger

Ryan Coogler — Sinners

If Sinners overperforms across categories, Coogler could emerge as a surprise winner. But the momentum currently favors Anderson.

🎭 Best Actor

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Predicted Winner: Michael B. Jordan — Sinners

Michael B. Jordan’s performance in Sinners has become one of the most talked-about acting turns of the year.

The film features Jordan in a complex dual role, showcasing both dramatic range and commanding screen presence. Awards campaigns often thrive on transformative performances, and Jordan’s work fits that mold.

Additionally, the Academy frequently rewards performances from films with widespread nominations. With Sinners leading the field, Jordan’s victory would align with that pattern.

Top contenders

• Timothée Chalamet — Marty Supreme

• Leonardo DiCaprio — One Battle After Another

• Wagner Moura — The Secret Agent

🎭 Best Actress

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Predicted Winner: Jessie Buckley — Hamnet

Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet, inspired by the novel by Maggie O’Farrell, has become one of the season’s most emotionally resonant films.

Jessie Buckley delivers a deeply affecting performance that anchors the film’s exploration of grief, family, and memory.

Acting branches of the Academy often gravitate toward performances that combine emotional intensity with subtlety, and Buckley’s work has been widely praised by critics groups throughout the awards season.

🎭 Best Supporting Actor

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Predicted Winner: Sean Penn — One Battle After Another

Veteran actors often benefit from strong supporting roles in prestige dramas, and Sean Penn’s performance in One Battle After Another fits that pattern perfectly.

Penn brings gravitas to the film’s ensemble cast, and his performance has received strong industry support.

Supporting categories often reward career recognition combined with a standout role, which makes Penn the likely winner.

🎭 Best Supporting Actress

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Predicted Winner: Amy Madigan — Weapons

One of the most compelling narratives of this Oscar season is the return of Amy Madigan.

Her nomination for Weapons arrives four decades after her first Oscar nomination, creating one of the longest gaps between acting nominations in Academy history.

The performance itself has been widely praised, and comeback narratives often resonate strongly with Academy voters.

🎥 Craft Category Predictions

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Technical categories often reward films that demonstrate exceptional visual and design craftsmanship.

Cinematography

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Prediction: One Battle After Another

The film’s sweeping visual style and carefully composed imagery make it a standout in this category.

Production Design

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Prediction: Frankenstein

Period-inspired gothic design and elaborate sets give Guillermo del Toro–style visual storytelling a strong advantage here.

Costume Design

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Prediction: Frankenstein

Lavish historical and fantasy costume work frequently wins in this category.

Original Score

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Prediction: Sinners

The film’s blues-inspired musical score plays a central role in its atmosphere and storytelling.

Film Editing

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Prediction: Sinners

The film’s pacing and narrative structure — particularly its dual-performance storytelling — make it a strong contender.

🌎 International and Animated Categories

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Best International Feature

Prediction: Sentimental Value

Best Animated Feature

Prediction: K-Pop Demon Hunters

Best Documentary Feature

Prediction: The Perfect Neighbor

🎬 Predicted Oscar Haul

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Film	Predicted Wins
One Battle After Another	4–5
Sinners	4–5
Frankenstein	3–4
Hamnet	2

This year’s ceremony will likely split major awards across several films, rather than producing a single dominant sweep.

📊 Final Takeaway

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The 98th Academy Awards reflect an evolving Academy.

Prestige historical dramas continue to thrive, but genre films and international productions increasingly compete on equal footing.

If these predictions hold, the 2026 Oscars will represent a balance between traditional awards prestige and modern cinematic innovation.

Download the Vanity Fair Oscar Ballot and fill out your predictions before the ceremony!